Lichess ratings are used throughout this dataset. If you play on Chess.com, your rating there is typically 200โ300 points lower than your Lichess equivalent, meaning a 1400 on Chess.com corresponds roughly to a 1600โ1700 here. Use the rating band filters accordingly.
What the Data Shows
Key patterns across 294,789 games
First-Move Advantage Fades with Skill
White wins 49.5% of all games in this dataset, barely above equal. At the 1800+ level, that figure drops to 48.7%, with black winning 46.2% and draws at 5.1%. Stronger players consistently neutralize white's opening tempo through preparation and theory, so the color of pieces matters less the higher you play.
Rating Gap Is a Decisive Predictor
When two players are within 50 Elo points, the higher-rated one wins only 50.2% of the time, essentially a coin flip. Crossing 200 points changes things significantly: a 101-200 gap already puts the stronger player at 64%, and at 300+ that climbs to 84.8%. Elo is not a guarantee, but a 200-point gap is a reliable signal of likely outcome.
Stronger Players Resign Earlier
At 1000-1200, about 34.7% of games end in checkmate: players at this level often don't recognize a lost position until the final move. At 1800+, checkmate accounts for just 21.5% while resignation reaches 39.6%. Experienced players concede when the outcome is clear, which is also why elite games tend to end earlier and feel shorter despite having more moves.
Opening Choice Can Swing the Odds
Most popular openings stay near 50/50, but some deviate sharply. Among the 20 most-played openings in this dataset, Queen's Gambit Refused stands out: white wins 56% of the time while black wins only 39.9%, a 16-point gap. At the other extreme, Van't Kruijs Opening strongly favors black: white wins only 43.6% versus 52.7% for black. These swings likely reflect opening familiarity within this player pool more than theoretical imbalance.
Filter by rating band:
Opening Popularity vs White Win Rate โ All
Each circle is an opening family, and bigger circles are played more often. The higher a circle sits, the better White scores: above the dashed 50% line White wins more than Black, and below it Black comes out ahead. Scroll to zoom, drag to pan, or search to highlight one opening.
scroll to zoom ยท drag to pan ยท double-click to reset
Win Rate by Rating Band โ All
Share of games won by White, won by Black, or drawn, grouped by the two players' average rating.
How Games End โ All
How each game finished (checkmate, resignation, flag on time, or draw), grouped by rating.
Top 5 Openings by Rating Band โ All
The five most played openings in each rating band. Longer bars were played more often, and the win rates show how White and Black scored with each.
King's Pawn Game
237
48% / 50%
Van't Kruijs Opening
113
42% / 56%
Scandinavian Defense
113
52% / 48%
Queen's Pawn Game
74
47% / 49%
French Defense
65
43% / 52%
White win %Black win %
Color Advantage by Opening โ All
How lopsided each opening is. Each bar is White's win rate minus Black's: bars to the right favor White, bars to the left favor Black, and longer bars mean a bigger edge.
Win Rate by Time Control
Outcomes split by game speed: Bullet (under 3 min), Blitz (3 to 10 min), and Rapid (over 10 min). Always shown across all speeds for comparison.
Opening Depth vs White Win Rate โ All
How White's win rate changes the longer both players stay in known opening theory. The x-axis is opening depth in half-moves (ply 10 means five moves each). Each line is a rating band.
Game Duration by Rating Band โ All
How long games last in real time. The box holds the middle 50% of games, the line inside is the typical (median) game, and the whiskers reach the shorter and longer extremes.
Turns per Game by Rating Band โ All
How many moves games last. The box holds the middle 50%, the line is the median, and the dot is the average. Stronger players tend to play longer games.
Does Rating Gap Predict Outcome? โ All
How often the higher-rated player actually wins as the rating gap between the two players grows.